CHINA

[Stanley]

CHINA

12 April 2005

There is an old joke; Man walking down street meets a mate and says “You look a bit glum, what's up? I should have thought the news your wife is expecting your third child would have cheered you up”. His mate said “Aye, but I read this morning that every third child born in the world is Chinese”.
Do you know what the population of China is today? 1,290,000,000. That’s right, almost one thousand three hundred million consumers and counting. Have you noticed how China keeps cropping up in the news? Think Rover Company takeover, energy and raw material consumption, the growth rate of the economy. Have you also noticed how quiet they have been on the international political front? For decades they were an essential part of the world-wide communist movement and were very aggressive. With the retreat of main stream communism they have turned inwards and concentrated on improving their skills, economy and of course, ability to consume. Their progress over the last twenty years has been impressive but I am here to tell you that you ain't seen nothing yet!
The western developed countries have had centuries as the top economic dogs and still act as though this is set in stone. This will all change in the next ten years. If China stopped investing in the US the dollar would collapse and the shock waves would be catastrophic for those countries that have not prepared for it. Oil and raw materials will be the first shock and they are hitting us now.
On Farming Today this morning the farmers were griping about fuel prices, I sympathise with anyone facing rising costs but they had better get used to it. There will be minor corrections but the trend is clear, we are not too far off $100 a barrel and not long since it was steady at $15. So, if you are doing any long term economic planning, at any level, bear this in mind. Look to the East, a sleeping giant is stirring.

12 April 2005

[I think I was perhaps ahead of the curve..... ]